Exxon's internal climate research

Two independent investigations in 2015 — by InsideClimate News and by the Los Angeles Times with the Columbia Journalism School — recovered internal Exxon memoranda and reports and published them. In 2023 Geoffrey Supran, Naomi Oreskes and Stefan Rahmstorf published a quantitative analysis in Science of every internal Exxon global warming projection they could find, 1977–2003. Between 63% and 83% of the projections were accurate within their uncertainty ranges; the average projected warming rate of about 0.20 °C per decade closely matches what has since been observed. The internal work also correctly rejected the idea of an imminent ice age and estimated when warming would become detectable.

Externally, the company's posture was different. Exxon funded the Global Climate Coalition and a network of think tanks, and ran 'advertorials' on the New York Times op-ed page emphasising uncertainty. A 1998 American Petroleum Institute memorandum, in which Exxon participated, set the objective explicitly: victory would be achieved when average citizens recognised uncertainties in climate science.

ExxonMobil disputes the framing, arguing its research was published in peer-reviewed literature and that its public statements reflected genuine scientific debate at the time. The 2023 analysis is a direct answer to that: the internal science was not uncertain in the way the public messaging claimed.